Session 1:

题目：Monetary Expansion and Government Guarantees: Lessons from China’s Stimulus Package in 2008

报告人：周天杭

摘要：We study the intertwining effects of monetary and fiscal policy mix fromChina’s perspective: extreme monetary expansion together with governmentguarantees. Government guarantees, pledging on government’s fiscal revenue, favorstate-owned.enterprises (SOEs), creating “credit discrimination” against privately-owned enterprises (POEs). We build two-sector (SOEs and POEs) DSGE model by incorporating heterogeneous firms along with Melitz (2003) to analyze the effects of China’s stimulus package in 2008. We show that extreme monetaryexpansion causes substantial efficiency loss by allowing the least productive firms tostay alive. This resource mis-allocation is magnified when government guarantees lead to credit discrimination against POE.

Section 2:

题目：Asymmetric Credit Constraint

报告人：兰俚萍

摘要：We provide firm-level evidence that credit constraints restrict international trade and affect multi-sector exporters’response to exchange rate movement. Credit constrained exporters respond to domestic currency depreciation by expanding production or adding new products firstly in less financial vulnerable sectors, then in sectors more dependent on outside funds, until they exhaust their limited financial resource. In other words, exchange rate depreciation exacerbates an exporters’under-performance in more financing-dependent sectors. These results survive for a series of robustness checks, and are stronger for low-performance firms and the firms with ordinary trade mode. Our findings are consistent with our prior that exporters’need for external finance is higher when home currency depreciates. Upon depreciation, exporters react by expanding production scale or entering new destination markets which incurs larger upfront costs. Therefore, credit constraints of the exporters are more likely to be binding with currency depreciation. The results have important policy implications for emerging market countries that rely heavily on exports but with weak financial institutions.

举办时间：2019年4月2日（周二）晚上19:00-21:30

活动场地：学术会堂812会议室