课程简介：

This course is on decision making under uncertainty. We cover both decision making under risk and non-calculable risk (ambiguity). The aim is to give the student a detailed overview of the most important models in decision theory such as expected utility theory (for risk), subjective expected utility theory and maxmin expected utility theory (for ambiguity). The course will focus on the axiomatic foundations of these models as well as how these models can be applied and empirically tested. We discuss famous decision-theoretic \paradoxes" such as the St. Petersburg Paradox, the Ellsberg Paradox and the Allais Paradox. We learn how these paradoxes can be resolved with the models introduced in this course. Towards the end of the course we learn how models on ambiguity can be applied to strategic interaction (games) and how this can explain empirically observed deviations from the Nash Equilibrium prediction.

Overall this course is theoretical, however a main focus will also be examples and applications. Required knowledge is a solid understanding of the basic principles of Microeconomics. A more pronounced back- ground in Economics and/or Mathematics is helpful but not required. The student should be interested and curious about how human decision-making can be modelled and tested. The schedule will be the following, subject to small changes:

1. What is Decision Theory? We discuss the concept of states, consequences and acts. We discuss many examples and the role of axioms in decision theory.

2. Decision making under risk: expected utility theory, St. Petersburg Paradox, Allais Paradox.

3. De Finetti's approach to decision making under uncertainty and its relationship to finance and no arbitrage arguments.

4. The crowning glory of decision theory": Savage's famous subjective expected utility theory.

5. Decision making under ambiguity: the Ellsberg Paradox, Choquet expected utility theory and Maxmin expected utility theory.

6. Ambiguous games: explaining deviations from Nash equilibrium with ambiguity.

授课教师：Dr. Lorenz Hartmann，埃克赛特大学经济学博士，弗莱堡大学统计和计量经济学系讲师。研究领域：决策理论、博弈论。

授课语言：英语

时间安排：

	2019.3.26	2019.3.28	2019.4.2	2019.4.2	2019.4.4
9:00-11:40			沙河主教406
16:00-18:35	沙河主教403	沙河主教403		沙河主教403	沙河主教403

此次授课向全校师生开放，欢迎踊跃报名。

第一次课程讲义可在“附件”中下载。

主办单位：

中国财政发展协同创新中心

中央财经大学国际合作处

2019年3月22日